Hurricane Reality Check (Rant)

Nassau County Exec Mangano has gone off his rocker and is doing his best “freak out the Island” move by basically saying an evacuation will be ordered for the barrier beach.  Because I like to be a contrarian to almost everything.  I will respectfully disagree and say he may be jumping the gun on that.

First: Newsday, among others, is reporting that most of LI will see around 6-8 inches of rain.  During the rainpocalypse that came down two Sundays ago, we got 11 inches in half that time.  No evacuation needed.

Second: Winds.  Most sources are saying winds will be around 65MPH with much higher gusts.  That is in line with our traditionally severe Nor Easters.  An especially bad one did plenty of damage around St. Patrick’s Day in 2010 if anyone else remembers it.

So yes, we are going to get a wicked storm, basements across town WILL be flooded, and the City will be a mess.  We will likely lose power (what else is new), there will be road closures, and their may be a drop in other services.  Is this Katrina of Long Island?  Doubtful.  I’m just suggesting they may be jumping the gun a tad.  The storm could certainly weaken, but it could also strengthen.  I agree though, preparedness is a good thing.

Don’t get me wrong.  Hurricane Irene is coming.  If they order an evacuation, you stay at your own risk.   If you stay behind, don’t complain when you’re stuck without power for days or the cops don’t arrive to whisk you away when your windows start flapping.  With that, I’m going to go prepare my Ark.

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22 thoughts on “Hurricane Reality Check (Rant)”

  1. Throw some hot chicken wings from John Henry’s in your ark. Maybe some Gino’s Pizza, a few LB Surf and UNSOUND stickers and Polar Bear sweatshirt. We don’t want the treasures of Long Beach to get extinct!

  2. Ummm you forgot about that thing called the ocean and the bay that we are between and that we are at sea level. Your pictures on the other post are not from rain

  3. You’re right. We really won’t know until it gets closer. However, the already saturated soil paired with the wind paired with the high tide when the hurricane is supposed to hit= the problem

  4. Take my advice.

    If you live alone then you may do what you like and if you die you die.

    If, on the other hand, you have children, a spouse or pets, I would err on the side of caution and expect a 9 to 12 foot tidal surge.

    12 feet of water will put the boardwalk under water, meaning the entire Barrier Island will be under water as well.

    I will be leaving Saturday morning and will be back when the sun comes out.

    May God have mercy on the folks that stay.

  5. Rick, I agree, anyone who can leave but chooses not to when the boardwalk is submerged is crazy. I just think it’s too soon to say “we’re gonna die” or “we’ll be fine, haven’t you ever seen it rain?” just yet.

  6. Here is my point.

    By late Friday there will be a quite precise prediction of the tidal surge.

    If the track holds up it will top out at 12 feet along a wide stretch of the barrier islands.

    You might not be interested in this storm but the storm is interested in you.

  7. Finally someone agrees with me! The track seems to have changed now and we will see either a tropical storm or maaayyyybbbeee a category 1. It will change again tomorrow. I’ll make my decision Saturday.

  8. I lived in the Caribbean. Hurricanes were a regular part of life and a Category 1 is mostly an inconvenience to people who are used to them.

    If they say evacuate I suggest you listen. It’s not expected to make landfall until very late Saturday but there will be a lot of traffic if you wait until that morning.

    They don’t take lightly the task of moving 43,000 bodies off an island to higher ground with only a few hundred volunteers. So if they say get off the island it’s because they really believe there’s imminent danger. I’ll be helping out around getting those who are not able to move on their own get to safety.

    Please check on your neighbors, especially the elderly and ones with children, and make sure they’re safe too.

  9. hopefully we are all going to be safe. I plan on hitting Beach Bagel on the West end. They are open 24 hours and they stayed open during all of the Nor’easters for the past 20 years. If they close then I know it’s time to evacuate!

  10. Any one know anything about people who live in the higher buildings, are they also subject to evacuate? Even if you are in the 7th floor of a building on sore Rd on the water?

    Answers are appreciated. Thank you

  11. I don’t think it matters what floor you are on. Just because your apartment itself would not flood doesn’t mean that you are at no risk of wind damage, power outages, whatever. I assumed that part of the reason for evacuations was to get everyone out in order to prevent the police and fire departments from having to rescue people who stay behind when things get worse or they need medical care.

  12. I don’t agree with Allison. I think if you are in good health and not in need of special care and you are on an upper floor, you need not worry.
    We can live very well if need be without electric, we have in the past.
    Lets not panic and upset people if we don’t know what we are talking about.

    Stay well and safe, In my opinion you are going to be fine.

  13. @leesali – my BOD for my building gave this number for a Pet Safe Program, 747-3500. So the storm is going to hit, but how strong will it be when it does? I’m not willing to sit around and wait to find out. Especially when I heard someone talking about hurricanes in the past sending waves reaching the 2nd floor of buildings on shore rd. i’m also worried about my car being flooded. So, yes. I’m headed up north.

  14. Hey Lucile,

    Ask the authorities about your specific situation. Do not listen to people on message boards. Things can fly through your windows no matter what floor you’re on.

    Be safe.

    Tracy

  15. does anyone if the loop parkway will be closed if there is an evacuation? I just dont want to leave LB for a party on Saturday afternoon and not be allowed to come back into LB Saturday evening is this possible?

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