Election 2011 Stat Crunching (No Big Turnout, But A Big Margin)

Election 2011 Stat Crunching (No Big Turnout, But A Big Margin)

Fewer people voted in the 2011 election in Long Beach than in 2009 based on the results posted via News 12/ Nassau County Board of Elections.

This year, approximately 7,131* people voted. In 2009, 7,243 Long Beachers voted – some 112 more.

And as much as this election was a “landslide” in terms of the change in the balance of power for the City Council – going from 3-2 to 4-1, it’s important to remember that the bottom Democrat only beat the top Republican (Marvin Weiss) by 375 votes or roughly 5% of the total votes cast. The party in the majority of the City Council has now switched four times since 2003 (2003, 2005, 2007, and now 2011) – that’s enough to give you whiplash.

If you want to look at another way, 21,280 votes were cast for the City Council, with 11,302 going to the Dem candidates, and 9,978 going to the Republicans. When presented that way, the Democrats won the election 53% to 46% – what would be considered a strong victory in a national election (and coincidentally almost the exact same percentage then-Senator Obama beat Senator McCain).

So what does all that mean? This election wasn’t a rush of fresh blood into the Long Beach political system. These were the same residents that vote in every election looking at what the incumbents have done over the last two years, and making a decision based on that record. This was a significant referendum on the Republican party in Long Beach. This looks like what some have called a vote “against” the Republican party as opposed to a vote “for” the Democrats. I think without a doubt though, this election affirms that the residents get the final say in how this town is run, and that should serve as a friendly reminder to those soon coming into power.

* Methodology: Because of the “pick 3” system, my math may be off by a few votes. Basically to figure out how many voters there were, I added the total number of votes for the leading Democratic and Republican candidates (what are the chances the same person would vote for both?) In 2009, there was a Long Beach judge up for election, so everyone that voted in Long Beach for City Council had to vote in the judge race (and there were only two choices). That number is therefore the total number of voters in Long Beach.

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6 thoughts on “Election 2011 Stat Crunching (No Big Turnout, But A Big Margin)

  1. The new leadership group has a great opportunity in their hands. Naturally, it will not be easy and there will be lots of sniping. But they have a chance to change Long Beach. I know that there are enough smarts there, among the four of them. Now they must be steadfast in operating with integrity and being straight with the public. Two years won’t do it. They need to do the right thing month in and month out, year in and year out, for probably a good five or six years in order to really make a difference. Don’t give that dangerous group another chance to sneak in in two or four years. Operating with brains and integrity will do it. I know that they have both, now they have to perform.

  2. Firing everyone at City Hall isn’t a great idea either. Some people are really good at there jobs and others stink. Friends and family will be taking jobs lets be honest if they put someone who is live in LB then everyone will say you hired a friend or family you don’t want outside LB people running the show either. No one wants Charlie from Freeport nor do we want Franny from Garden City doing the purchasing. We don’t want the old Dem clubhouse back either. If you bring back the same people from the past then again in 2 years there will be a change. No one wants old blood! Bring in new ideas and new people who can think outside the box. Not old dogs like Zapson who are not better than what we have now

  3. I think transparency, pledged by the newbies, should rule the day. A list of reasonable questions/issues can be put to the CC. I’ll venture some here, in no particular order:

    How many full and part-time employees are on the payroll this year? How does that compare to each of the last 5 years, in totals and by department.
    How many chiefs and how many indians?

    How come when i call the building department about a question, the answer is different depending on who you speak to?

    How come if i wakk into City Hall, a lot of employees are sitting doing nothing?

  4. I think transparency, pledged by the newbies, should rule the day. A list of reasonable questions/issues can be put to the CC. I’ll venture some here, in no particular order:

    How many full and part-time employees are on the payroll this year? How does that compare to each of the last 5 years, in totals and by department.
    How many chiefs and how many indians?

    How come when i call the building department about a question, the answer is different depending on who you speak to?n
    How come if i wakk into City Hall, a lot of employees are sitting doing nothing?

  5. Continuing the above-posting:

    Why is the police chief “acting” police chief? Is there an economic rationale for it?

    Is there a bookkeeping error with respect to pension credit for certain CC members? Has the issue been resolved? How so?

    Why are wooden railings being installed in some areas of the boardwalk when the plan is to replace them with metal?

    What is the status of the superblock?

    What is the plan to deal with the sewage problems at the LB treatment facility?

    What are we facing in sewer infrastructure issues?

    Is there any “surplus” today?

    What lawsuits of magnitude exist against the city?

    These are largely factual issues.

    I’m sure i missed a bunch

  6. Publius asks: “How come if i walk into City Hall, a lot of employees are sitting doing nothing?:

    Yo Pub, you referring to Charlie Freeport? He hasn’t done an effing thing in almost eight years but sit on his fat rear end and act like a schoolyard bully.

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